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August 2018 
Pre-national: Looking forward to the National this year, which is in beautiful Cleveland. You can see their skyline above. Haha - joke's on you. No one knows what Cleveland looks like because it's a semi-useless rundown city. The fact that there's a mountain in the background and not a lake on fire should have given it away! Day 1 - Monday I'm not a huge fan of driving. In fact, I'm looking forward to when self-driving cars are ubiquitous on the road. Then I'll be able to read a book, scroll through Twitter, or catch some ZZZs and just wake up in my destination. Until then, I have to be somewhat attentive to my surroundings and forego any semblence of productivity when I'm traveling from place to place. But there is a route I enjoy driving. I've done back-to-back shows in Dayton and Cincinnati a few times, and I like the stretch of 75 between those two cities. There's one simple reason for this: people drive fast! It's open road, and people fly. So when I saw the following sign, I was like, "this must be a thing I can expect when traveling north-south through Ohio" 
No such luck. I've not hidden my disdain for Indiana, "the armpit of America." Indiana is a useless crossroads full of semi-truck traffic and white supremicists. With that in mind, I thought once I crossed into Ohio that things would be better on the road. Turns out, instead of being cut off and slowed down by truck traffic, once I crossed into Ohio, I was slowed down by car traffic. They have these signs posted frequently, which I truly appreciate, but no one follows them. 
In any case, I'm settled in to what will be my home for the next few nights. Of course I won't say where, but there is a fridge in the room which I've stocked with some drinks. Since there's not an official breakfast, I also scouted a local WalMart for oatmeal and fruit and OJ. While I haven't figured out any buying/selling goals for the show yet (for some reason, I'm not sure I'm taking this show very seriously...I'll have to think on that and see if there is indeed a reason), one thing I'm aiming for is to not stuff my face like a wild savage while I'm here. Day 2 - Tuesday and So Slow With regard to my above remarks about taking the show seriously, after today I can say I'm taking it more seriously than most of the others dealers in the room. But put a pin in that notion and I'll circle back around to it. It's likely that today's entry will be my most lengthy. The hours tomorrow are 8-8, which will no doubt leave me physically and mentally wiped out, and also at a loss for time to write after scrounging for something to eat after the show ends. Loading in to a National is controlled pandemonium. Especially here in Cleveland. The I-X (International Exposition) Center is probably the largest one-story building I'll ever see or be inside of. Here's proof: I made a few trips loading in and out and didn't even notice an airplane parked inside until I left at the end of the day. 
Maybe this captures how tall the place is. I'll get a better pic of the inside (including ferris wheel) tomorrow...the one I took today was blurry. Having a building so large should make things easy, no? Well, no. :/ I don't know why the line to get in (full of typical sportscard dealer transportation - minivans, vans, moving trucks) is so godforsaken long, and why it moves so slowly. I decided to skip all that hassle and just wheel my stuff in one dolly-load at a time. Don't worry, this was all calculated beforehand, not impromptu. Four trips and I would be done. In actuality it was three, as I borrowed Joe's four-wheel cart for the final trip. And once you're inside, it's a mess of dodging expo center staff members whistling around on golf carts, the occasional dope wandering aimlessly, and all of the dealers' vans, etc., which are allowed to drive through the aisles and right up to their tables. Thank goodness I honed my skills on Frogger decades ago. All that, and what do I have to show for today? 3 sales and 4 purchases. Some dealer day. Most stuck behind their tables setting up and seemed to have no desire to emerge. This is one of a few troubling trends. And I blame it on the internet. I'm gonna use a phrase here that you'll have to braces yourselves for... In "the good old days" many of the same dealers would travel the country on what was affectionately known as "the circuit." Factoring in some geographical limitations, you would generally see the same bunch of dealers every month or so all year. Now, not so much. In fact, I heard a handful of the old guard today talking about how they had stopped traveling, maybe how the National is the only show they set up at each year (some just walking instead of setting up), and some even talked of discontinuing their National attendance. I realized it's entirely possible we're coming to the end of an era. Local and regional shows have slowed everywhere, and now I suspect that not even The National can escape this trend. As I write this, I'm thinking that maybe shows will continue down the path of other businesses in America, where the local mom and pop is replaced by a bigger corporation. Maybe the Nationals of the future will be less transactional and feature more auction houses, card manufacturers, selling services (eBay, COMC, etc.) and only the very few largest card dealers in the hobby. Another internet-y trend hit me today as I was attempting to buy from a kid who walked up to my table with some graded cards for sale. As much as I would like to show off my expertise, I usually need to rely upon VCP to get in the neighborhood of the market for graded cards; there's just too much to remember. Anyway, I was on my phone, he was on his phone, and we were both looking at the exact same sales figures. It was a ridiculous scene. I felt like a robot could be doing my job. I mean, I guess we were both relying on robots anyway. And to what end? He was unreasonable on his asking prices (which you have to believe because I'm the one writing the story) and I didn't buy anything. I don't want to be one of these guys who says "Ohhhh, the internet ruined everything!" It didn't. Many dealers lamented eBay when it emerged. Their #1 complaint was "those are wholesale prices." Well? Ummm, they were accurate prices. Market prices. If I cared to respond to their rant, I used a tried and true market-based question: "If the prices are too cheap, why don't you buy?" You can imagine how that turned out... a disgusted huff and no additional reply. With VCP and grading so prevalent in the industry, it's not like there's no market and it's not like a market has been ruined, per se. What I dislike is that the movement of cards has drastically decreased. Put those things together - a tight market and a bunch of vintage dealers in their twilight - and one possibility is that we are in the waning days of the hobby. Will the baton of vintage card collecting be passed or dropped? It's not so far-fetched. I've talked to people in other hobbies: stamps, coins, Edison discs/records, motorcycles... The heydays for these have come and gone. Or if things are cyclical in nature, these all seem to be in valleys. Could cards be headed in that direction as well...and how quickly? Day 3 - Wednesday - 11 Hours In A Tin Can/There's Got To Be Another Way I thought today I'd have something better to say about the show and the hobby in general. Wednesday at The National should be a great mix of activity... In the morning and afternoon, you have dealers completely set up and now ready to buy and sell. Then later in the afternoon, the fired-up public comes in - led by the VIPs and "Super VIPs," the people who want to bust into The National early so badly that they'll pay extra admission to do so. However, both turned out to be let downs. The best way I can describe dealer mentality is "tight." Not much room to budge on prices coupled with no desire to buy cards. This is disturbing. In addition to this, Joe and I spoke to some large dealers who were circulating, _large_ eBay sellers, and ALL reported their sales slowing down. ALL expressed a reluctance to buy. Here's the good news. If you're a collector who isn't focused on the investing side of the hobby, I believe that cards are going to become cheaper, with only a couple handfuls of exceptions. However that statement sits with you will truly expose whether you're a collector or investor. There's only a sliver of me that feels somewhat better having these conversations with other dealers. It's only relief in feeling like I'm not crazy. This gloom and doom I'm pitching isn't being discussed on message boards. I also don't run into these dealers very often, maybe only 2-4 times each year. Having them agree both anecdotely and based on their bottom line tells me I'm not alone with my sales figures and view on the market. So, all that talking and not much selling, which, by the way, weren't related. I was at the table for a good part of the day and had only 8 sales to show for it. Tale of the tape: a full 91% of the total $$$ sold was for two cards I could have sold easily on eBay. There's no point in traveling for that result. Day 4 - Thursday - This Is What You Came For(?) Today was a full day of the public. 9AM-6PM, so a little shorter than yesterday too. Almost all the dealer-to-dealer action is completed by this time of the week. As such, I was behind the table for probably 90% of the day. More people filtered through than the day before, giving the show more hope. Sales picked up a bit, but mostly on cards that are easy to sell (graded and also some new 61 Fleer basketball). As I was walking into the show, I talked to a prominent buyer for Kit Young. He's one of the people I like to see, not just because he has a habit of rifling through all my cards and then cutting me a multi-thousand dollar check, but because he enjoys a couple beers and engages you in lively conversation while doing it. (I say it on occasion... card dealers who make it to this level are generally a fun group to hang out with. They're bright, they crave action, they're good story-tellers, they drink and laugh a lot, and for the most part they're goofy enough to not be able to work for anyone else.) Anyway, long story short, and in continuing with my theme, he said they have really slowed down selling, can't figure out why, and have thus greatly reduced their buying. Same old same old, and from another long-standing hobby titan. Logistically, today ended the selling portion of my National. At the end of the day, I cleared out my showcases and packed everything up. Tomorrow I'm going to take a couple hours to walk the show floor without the burden of watching the table weighing on my mind. Then I'm headed back home for a very brief stint. Most of that time will be spent shipping cards and washing clothes. And then I'm headed down to St Louis on Saturday for a show on Sunday. As I didn't bring commons or $1 and $2 cards to the National (I'm tempted to just display $1 cards next year in Chicago), I'm also going to do a quick swaparoo of some inventory before I shuttle down. Postscript Because of the quick turnaround, I likely won't have time to provide a Friday/Day 5 update. My plans are to network a little bit and also to see which dealers are hurting and see how effective it is to wave some cash under their noses. I'll say this, on one of my couple around the room today, I did notice how few dealers still have a set-up like mine: primarily ungraded, mid-grade 50s/60s. There are overpriced complete sets and ragged junk boxes and cases sporting highfalutin graded cards that are spaced out so pretentiously it's like they're electrons floating around a nucleus that have to be at maximum distance from each other at all times. My graded cards aren't fancy. They don't sit in first class, or even coach. My graded cards are stacked and rubbing elbows like subway patrons. Monster Cards is not pretentious....haha, as if that was ever in doubt. I appreciate the readership and the comments. I know my thoughts on this wonderful hobby have been sobering for the past year+, and especially harsh these last few days. As always, I respect and prefer to deal with the intelligent collector...and dealer. Transactions go so much more smoothly with an informed counterpart. I appreciate and welcome your reflections as well. Upcoming homes of The National: 2019 - Chicago 2020 - Atlantic City 2021 - TBD probably on Saturday, August 4, 2018. Have fun! -T |
Inside My Brain